College football bowl projections for Week 12: Texas back in CFP title game, Ole Miss poised for a run?
The SEC shuffle continued in Week 11.
Ole Miss beat Georgia 28-10 in Week 11, and that opened up a potential playoff path for the Rebels out of the No. 11 seed. Would you take the Rebels at Penn State knowing they won the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl matchup between the teams 38-25 last season? Ole Miss vs. BYU in the Fiesta Bowl. Who you got in that one?
Especially if they faced Texas in the semifinals. The Longhorns beat the Gators 49-17 on Saturday, and Quinn Ewers passed for 333 yards and five TDs. Texas is our projected SEC champion now.
Steve Sarkisian vs. Lane Kiffin – a pair of former Alabama offensive coordinators under Nick Saban – in the CFP semifinals. Who you got in that one?
The second set of College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled Tuesday. Sporting News will have weekly bowl projections leading up to the unveiling of the first 12-team playoff field on Dec. 8.
The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 20, and three on Saturday, Dec. 21. The quarterfinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31), Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The semifinals will be played at the Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 9) and Cotton Bowl Classic (Jan. 10). The CFP national championship is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Here are our bowl projections for Week 11.
MORE: Projected College Football Playoff after Week 11
College football bowl predictions 2024
There are 35 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 14 | Camellia Bowl | Ohio vs. James Madison |
| Dec. 17 | Boca Raton Bowl | Jacksonville State vs. South Florida |
| Dec. 18 | Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl | Marshall vs. San Jose State |
| Dec. 18 | LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk | UNLV vs. Washington State |
| Dec. 19 | R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky |
| Dec. 20 | Staffdna Cure Bowl | Western Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina |
| Dec. 20 | Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl | UConn vs. Virginia Tech |
| Dec. 23 | Myrtle Beach Bowl | Miami, Ohio vs. South Alabama |
| Dec. 23 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Toledo vs. Colorado State |
| Dec. 24 | Hawaii Bowl | Tulane vs. Hawaii |
| Dec. 26 | Detroit Bowl | Buffalo vs. Nebraska |
| Dec. 26 | Guaranteed Rate Bowl | West Virginia vs. Michigan State |
| Dec. 26 | 68 Ventures Bowl | Georgia Southern vs. Eastern Michigan |
| Dec. 27 | Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Army vs. Cincinnati |
| Dec. 27 | Birmingham Bowl | Baylor vs. Arkansas |
| Dec. 27 | Autozone Liberty Bowl | Iowa State vs. Vanderbilt |
| Dec. 27 | SDS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl | Arizona State vs. Wisconsin |
| Dec. 27 | DirecTV Holiday Bowl | North Carolina vs. Colorado |
| Dec. 28 | Wasabi Fenway Bowl | East Carolina vs. Syracuse |
| Dec. 28 | Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl | Georgia Tech vs. Michigan |
| Dec. 28 | Isleta New Mexico Bowl | Liberty vs. Arkansas State |
| Dec. 28 | Pop-Tarts Bowl | Pitt vs. Texas Tech |
| Dec. 28 | Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice | Bowling Green vs. Fresno State |
| Dec. 28 | Go Bowling Military Bowl | Navy vs. Cal |
| Dec. 28 | Valero Alamo Bowl | Kansas State vs. USC |
| Dec. 28 | Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl | Memphis vs. Oregon State |
| Dec. 30 | Transperfect Music City Bowl | Duke vs. Texas A&M |
| Dec. 31 | Reliaquest Bowl | Minnesota vs. Missouri |
| Dec. 31 | Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl | SMU vs. Washington |
| Dec. 31 | Cheez-It Citrus Bowl | Illinois vs. Georgia |
| Dec. 31 | Texas Bowl | TCU vs. South Carolina |
| Jan. 2 | Taxslayer Gator Bowl | Louisville vs. LSU |
| Jan. 3 | Servpro First Responder Bowl | North Texas vs. Texas State |
| Jan. 3 | Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Clemson vs. Iowa |
| Jan. 4 | Bahamas Bowl | Northern Illinois vs. Sam Houston |
College Football Playoff first-round predictions
A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Indiana |
| Dec. 21 | First-Round CFP game | No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State |
| Dec. 21 | First-Round CFP game | No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 6 Penn State |
| Dec. 21 | First-Round CFP game | No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee |
Three Big Ten teams are hosting first-round playoff games, but how much would weather be a factor? Boise State-to-Columbus isn’t that much of a difference weather-wise. Ole Miss in Happy Valley? That might be a different story. Six of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring defense in the FBS. Alabama (18.0 ppg, 14th) and Boise State (25.1 ppg., 72nd) are the only two out outside of that mark.
College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 31 | Vrbo Fiesta Bowl | No. 3 BYU vs. No. 11 Ole Miss |
| Jan. 1 | Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl | No. 4 Miami vs. No. 5 Ohio State |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential | No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 9 Notre Dame |
| Jan. 1 | Allstate Sugar Bowl | No. 2 Texas vs. No. 10 Alabama |
Two first-round upsets? We have Ole Miss beating Penn State and Notre Dame taking out Indiana. The Rebels likely would be favored against BYU in the Fiesta Bowl if it comes to this matchup, but it is a trip out West. Notre Dame would make its first trip to Pasdena, Calif., since 1925 to face the Ducks. It would be cool to see those gold Irish helmets coming out of the tunnel at the Rose Bowl. Alabama-Texas would be box-office television, and Ohio State-Miami would evoke memories of the 2003 Fiesta Bowl for both sides.
College Football Playoff semifinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 9 | Capital One Orange Bowl | No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Ohio State |
| Jan. 10 | Cotton Bowl Classic | No. 2 Texas vs. No. 11 Ole Miss |
This would guarantee a SEC vs. Big Ten matchup in the championship game. The Rebels are one of three teams that rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Texas and Indiana are the others. This would be the third matchup between the Ducks and Buckeyes, and we know the saying about beating a team three times. How would that be received by fans of both schools? Of these quarterbacks Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart has the highest efficiency rating in the FBS at 188.58. Ohio State’s Will Howard (182.5) is third, followed by Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (168.4) at sixth and Ewers (160.16) at No. 14.
College Football Playoff championship pick
A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2024-25 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 20 | CFP National championship | No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Texas |
We had Oregon and Georgia in this matchup last week, so what changed? Georgia isn’t in our playoff – at least for this week – and the Longhorns looked more like the team that dominated September coming out of the bye week. Ohio State and Oregon is a toss-up knowing the three-match factor, and in that situation we’re taking the Buckeyes given their playoff path. Ewers – whose career started at Ohio State – would come full circle here.
