NCAA

College Football Playoff bracket for Week 12: Projecting top four seeds, first-round matchups, bubble teams

Georgia is not in the College Football Playoff this week. 

Before you freak out, notice we said “this week.” The Bulldogs lost 28-10 to No. 16 Ole Miss on Saturday – and if the College Football Playoff committee honors that properly, it’s going to lead to a huge swing. 

Georgia – who was ranked No. 3 in the first set of rankings – should fall to No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings with its second loss. Ole Miss – which was ranked No. 16 – should move up seven spots to No. 9 – which would put the Rebels in the final at-large spot. 

In that scenario, the Bulldogs would be out as Miami, BYU and Boise State would get into the field as conference champions despite being ranked behind Georgia. The final two at-large teams would be Alabama and Ole Miss. Is that justified? Georgia did beat Texas 30-15 on Oct. 19, but Ole Miss beat Georgia. The Rebels have a pair of three-point losses to Kentucky and LSU, and that might lead the committee to keep Georgia a spot or two ahead of Ole Miss in Tuesday’s rankings. 

That is not even where the outrage will be. The ACC and Big 12 will have projected conference champions – in this case BYU and SMU – that will be ranked lower than the Bulldogs but will be in the playoff field. Good luck controlling that. 

Does Georgia deserve to be in right now? The Bulldogs have committed three or more turnovers in four of their last six games, and they have not looked the part of a national championship machine outside of the second half against Alabama and the first half against Texas. Kirby Smart can use that as motivation – and we would not be surprised if the Bulldogs win out and make a run in the College Football Playoff. They would be right back in with a victory against Tennessee in Week 12. 

That’s next week. For this week, we’re leaving Georgia out. 

Each week, Sporting News breaks down the 12-team College Football Playoff, with first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. Here is how that looks heading into Week 12:  

Moved in: Ole Miss 

Dropped out: Georgia 

Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes 

No. 1 Oregon (10-0, Big Ten champion) 

The Ducks continue to cruise in the Big Ten race. Dillon Gabriel set the FBS record with his 179th career touchdown in the third quarter of a 39-18 victory against Maryland. Gabriel (23 of 34, 183 yards, 3 TDs) added another TD pass in the fourth quarter to Evan Stewart. The Ducks limited the Terps to 80 rushing yards, and that should be good for another week in the top spot. Oregon has its last road trip in conference play at Wisconsin in Week 12, where it can move one step closer toward clinching a spot in the Big Ten championship game. 

No. 2 Texas (8-1, SEC champion) 

Texas is back on top in the SEC race with the help of Georgia’s loss. The Longhorns hammered Florida 49-17, and Quinn Ewers (19 of 27, 333 yards, 5 TDs) hit four different receivers for TDs and six different receivers for completions of 20 yards or more. There is no QB controversy heading into the stretch run, and Texas piled up 562 total yards. Texas travels to Arkansas for a renewal of an old Southwest Conference rivalry in Week 12.

MORE: Quinn Ewers light up Florida in easy Texas win

No. 3 BYU (9-0, Big 12 champion) 

BYU’s charmed season continues. The Cougars took advantage of a fourth-down defensive holding penalty by Utah on the game’s final drive, and Jake Retzlaff (15 of 33, 219 yards) did the rest in a 22-21 victory against the Utes. Will Ferrin’s 44-yard field goal with four seconds left ended a Holy War classic. BYU is the lone unbeaten in the Big 12 race, and two of their last three games are at home, starting with Kansas in Week 12. 

4. Miami (9-1, ACC champion) 

Miami lost 28-23 to Georgia Tech; the Hurricanes’ second straight loss to the Yellow Jackets in as many seasons. Georgia Tech piled up 271 rushing yards and forced a Cam Ward fumble with 1:48 remaining to seal the upset. Ward (25 of 39, 348 yards, 3 TDs) put up prolific numbers again, but the Hurricanes’ constant flirtations with disaster finally caught up. Miami still controls its destiny to get to the ACC championship game, and despite SMU having the lead in the standings we still think Miami can win the ACC championship. The at-large bid is likely out of the question. 

MORE: Miami’s failed rally ends perfect season

Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups 

A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 12 of the college football season: 

No. 12 Boise State (8-1, Mountain West champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (8-1, Big Ten at-large) 

The Buckeyes dominated Purdue 45-0. Will Howard (21 of 26, 260 yards, 3 TDs) has multiple TD passes in seven straight games, and Jeremiah Smith (6-87, TD) caught his eighth TD pass of the season. Jack Sawyer punctuated the blowout with a fumble return for a TD, and Ohio State might be favored if a Big Ten championship rematch with Oregon materializes. Boise State beat Nevada 28-21 to maintain their lead in the Mountain West Conference race. Ashton Jeanty had 34 carries for 209 yards and three TDs. Army (9-0) also is in play for the Group of 5 play berth. 

No. 11 Ole Miss (8-2, SEC at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (8-1, Big Ten at-large)

We have projected this matchup a few times through the process. Ole Miss has the best point differential in the SEC at plus-278, and the 28-10 victory against Georgia showed Lane Kiffin can win the big game. Penn State bounced back from the loss to Ohio State with a 35-6 blowout against Washington. The Huskies managed just 193 yards. The Nittany Lions might not make the Big Ten championship game, but they are near the top when it comes to at-large teams. That is good enough for a home game at Beaver Stadium. This would be a rematch of last year’s Peach Bowl, won by Ole Miss.

No. 10 Alabama (7-2, SEC at-large) at No. 7 Tennessee (8-1, SEC at-large)

The Crimson Tide routed LSU 42-13 behind four TD runs from Jalen Milroe, and that puts first-year coach Kalen DeBoer back in charge of a potential playoff run. Alabama also has a head-to-head victory against Georgia in hand, and they are at the top of the two-loss heap. Tennessee beat Mississippi State 33-14, but quarterback Nico Iamaleava and running back Dylan Sampson suffered injuries. Their status will be monitored closely ahead of a trip to Georgia. The Volunteers beat the Crimson Tide 24-17 on Oct. 19. How would they do in a rematch? 

MORE: Alabama blows out LSU, tightens crowded SEC race

No. 9 Notre Dame (8-1, Independent at-large) at No. 8 Indiana (10-0, Big Ten at-large)

Could you imagine the Irish playing a road game at Memorial Stadium in the first round of an in-state College Football Playoff matchup? The Hoosiers hung on for a 20-15 victory against Michigan for the first 10-0 start in school history, and they have a bye week to get ready for arguably the biggest game in school history at Ohio State on Nov. 23. Notre Dame has outscored its last four opponents 183-37 – and that trend continued in a 52-3 victory against Florida State. There is a chance the Crimson Tide leap-frog the Irish in the next set of rankings, but we will stick with the one-loss team. 

Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams 

Georgia (7-2, SEC) 

Georgia committed three turnovers in a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss, and the Bulldogs have a point differential of 109. Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss are above 200, and the Crimson Tide have a head-to-head victory against Georgia. The Bulldogs can get right back in with a victory against Tennessee, and the last three games are at Sanford Stadium. 

MORE: Carson Beck’s struggles continue in loss to Ole Miss

SMU (8-1, ACC) 

The Mustangs lead the ACC standings, but they will still be a few spots behind Miami in the rankings. SMU averages 40.1 points per game and has managed to stay perfect in ACC play. The 18-15 loss to BYU on Sept. 6 is the only blemish. Quarterback Kevin Jennings leads the conference with 15.0 yards per completion, and that big-play offense returns in Week 11 against Boston College. SMU controls its own destiny in the ACC championship race. 

Texas A&M (7-2, SEC) 

The nature of the Aggies’ season changed after the 44-20 loss to South Carolina, but they’ve had a week to adjust to the loss of running back Le’Veon Moss, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Gamecocks. Texas A&M still has one conference loss, but they would need to win out – including the regular-season finale against Texas – to stick in the race under first-year coach Mike Elko. That Week 1 loss to Notre Dame still hurts. Texas A&M faces New Mexico State in Week 11. 

Colorado (7-2, Big 12) 

Hello, Colorado. The Buffaloes will likely be ranked one spot behind Kansas State based on the 31-28 loss on Oct. 12, but the Buffaloes have just one conference loss while the Wildcats have two and they are tied for first place in the Big 12. Colorado beat Texas Tech 41-27. Shedeur Sanders (30 of 43, 291 yards, 3 TDs) and Travis Hunter (9-99, TD) both could be Heisman Trophy finalists. Second-year coach Deion Sanders continues to string together victories, and Utah is next in Week 12.

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