MLB playoff home run props picks: Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper to go deep Thursday

Both MLB championship series continue Thursday, and multiple stars are seeing the ball well at the plate, with Game 3 of the Astros vs. Rangers ALCS and Game 4 of the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS on deck.

Here we look at home run props picks for MLB Playoffs action on Thursday, Oct. 19.

The Braves and Diamondbacks kick off the doubleheader today at 5:07 p.m. ET on TBS. Before the first pitch, look at some of the best MLB home run props for the contests.

You can get in on the action with house money by claiming one of the bonuses from the top sportsbooks below.

Best MLB home run prop picks for Astros vs. Rangers ALCS Game 4

MLB home run prop pick: Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run 

 

Yordan Alvarez is the hottest hitter in all of baseball currently.

That’s saying a lot, given how hot Bryce Harper has been in the postseason. Through seven playoff games, Alvarez has hit six home runs and has a slash line of .407/.467/1.148. Tonight, he is up against Andrew Heaney for the Rangers, of whom he has yet to hit a home run on. 

In 14 at-bats, he is hitting .286 against Heaney, but he hasn’t quite got to the big ball yet. However, this is their first meeting in postseason play, and as good as he is in the regular season, his play always elevates a notch in the postseason. Additionally, Alvarez hits each of Heaney’s most-used pitch selections at a high clip. 

Heaney uses the four-seamer, slider, and changeup at 57%, 25%, and 17% clips. Alvarez hits those pitches at .267, .303, and .289, respectively. Given his success against Heaney’s pitch selection and how well he is hitting right now, we like his odds of going yard. 

MLB home run prop pick: Jose Altuve to hit a home run 

 

Jose Altuve is a streaky hitter, and for most of the postseason, he has struggled at the plate. In seven playoff games, he is hitting .200 at the plate.

In Game 3 on the road in a must-win game for the Astros, he found his bat, hitting 2-for-5. One of those hits was a homer. Altuve and the rest of the Astros have thrived on the road this season, and Globe Life Stadium is one of the places they have enjoyed visiting the most. 

The last time they visited the Rangers in the regular season, Altuve hit five home runs in three games in a dominating series sweep. Heaney took the mound in one of those games, which ended in a 13-6 thrashing of the Rangers.

Heaney went four and two-thirds into the game, allowing five hits and three runs. In their all-time matchup, Altuve bats .324 and has two home runs. 

Whether it’s by getting to Heaney for the deep ball or the relief pitcher after knocking Heany out early, we like Altuve’s odds for a long ball in this one. 

Best MLB home run prop picks for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS Game 3

MLB home run prop pick: Bryce Harper to hit a home run

 

After Alvarez, Harper is undoubtedly next on the list of best hitters in postseason play. In the current series with the Diamondbacks, he is hitting .429, which includes a homer in Game 1. Tonight, he is up against Arizona’s rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who he has yet to face in his career.

In 21 starts this year (postseason included), Pfaadt only has eight games in which he didn’t allow a homer. That means there is a great chance someone goes deep against him tonight, and Harper’s odds are as good as any in the league.

Currently, Pfaadt relies mostly on the four-seamer, which Harper hitting at a .310 clip this season. Pfaadt also has a sweeper in his arsenal, which Harper only hits .174 against, but that’s in limited looks, as he has only faced 26 total this year. 

Another reason we like Harper to go yard is because Pfaadt has had challenges making it deep into games. He hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning since early September. If he is knocked out early again, that gives Harper even more time against the relief, which is never good news when it comes to keeping his bat cool. 

MLB home run prop pick: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run

 

Kyle Schwarber is another streaky hitter who is finding his groove.

He is batting .219 in postseason play, but that’s turning around in the last two games against the Diamondbacks. Schwarber is hitting .429 and has three home runs, including two in Game 2. That spells bad news for the rookie Pfaadt, who is taking the mound for the Diamondbacks in hopes of helping his team avoid a 0-3 hole in the series. 

Schwarber got to the Diamondbacks’ aces in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the first two games, which doesn’t leave much confidence in trusting the rookie to quiet his bat. Schwarber heated up about this time last year, seemingly now a routine.

His numbers may not support him going deep, but his track record does. Against a young pitcher in a win-or-go-home situation, our money is on the veteran in this one.

— By David Fletcher

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