NBA over/under predictions: Odds and best bets to make for 2023-24 season, including Warriors, Lakers and Spurs

This should be a year of parity for the NBA.

Based on preseason over/under win totals, sportsbooks don’t have a runaway favorite to take either conference. The Nuggets lead the way with an over/under of 54.5 wins in the Western Conference and the Celtics’ number is at 53.5 wins in the Eastern Conference.

There are a ton of teams bunched in the middle — 24 of the 30 are expected to finish with at least 35.5 wins.

Most of the totals for these teams are solid, but there are some weaker lines that look like pretty good bets. After looking at some models and thinking about how new additions will fit, here are the best bets that are on the board.

MORE: Redrafting the 2012 NBA Draft: Damian Lillard or Anthony Davis for No. 1?

NBA win totals for 2023-24 season

(All odds via BetMGM)

Atlanta Hawks 42.5 -125 +105
Boston Celtics 53.5 -130 +110
Brooklyn Nets 37.5 -110 -110
Charlotte Hornets 31.5 -120 +100
Chicago Bulls 37.5 -110 -110
Cleveland Cavaliers 49.5 -140 +115
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 -115 -115
Denver Nuggets 54.5 +100 -120
Detroit Pistons 28.5 -105 -115
Golden State Warriors 49.5 +110 -130
Houston Rockets 31.5 -120 +100
Indiana Pacers 37.5 -140 +115
Los Angeles Clippers 46.5 -110 -110
Los Angeles Lakers 47.5 -105 -115
Memphis Grizzlies 45.5 -110 -110
Miami Heat 48.5 -120 +100
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves 43.5 -130 +110
New Orleans Pelicans 43.5 -130 +110
New York Knicks 43.5 -130 +110
Oklahoma City Thunder 43.5 -130 +110
Orlando Magic 35.5 -140 +115
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 +100 -120
Phoenix Suns 51.5 -105 -115
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings 43.5 -130 +110
San Antonio Spurs 30.5 +100 -120
Toronto Raptors 36.5 +100 -120
Utah Jazz 35.5 -115 -105
Washington Wizards 24.5 -125 +105

Best NBA win total over bets

Best bet: Warriors over 49.5 wins (+110)

The Warriors won 44 games last season, falling well short of their 52.5 win total. Much of that was due to injuries to Stephen Curry, who played in only 56 games. Andrew Wiggins appeared in only 37 as well.

Those two should play more this season, which is one of the biggest reasons that the Warriors should see an uptick in wins. The other obvious reason is the addition of Chris Paul and subtraction of Jordan Poole. 

The Warriors have typically fallen completely apart when Curry has been out of games. Paul finally gives them an option to hold down the fort when Curry is not on the floor. Paul isn’t the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still a great facilitator who led great offenses in Phoenix. 

Poole’s departure could be addition by subtraction as well. He’s a good scorer, but he was the worst rotation player by on/off metrics for the team last season. 

Role players like Poole may not seem particularly noteworthy, but a critical weakness of the Warriors last season was their lack of depth. For years they employed the strength in numbers mantra. Donte DiVincenzo played well but did not make up for ineffective play from free agent JaMychal Green and unproductive minutes from their young players.

The bench problem has been addressed with Paul and others. They should get a full year of key reserve Gary Payton II, who was so vital that they traded back for him last February. Cory Joseph is a solid veteran point guard and Dario Saric is a nice fit in Kerr’s system. 

The Warriors were a championship team partly due to strong contributions from bench players Otto Porter Jr., Payton and Nemanja Bjelica. This new bench should be able to replicate their success. 

Knicks over 43.5 wins (-130)

The Knicks won 47 games last season, so it might seem odd to see such a low win total for them. One explanation is that they were the beneficiaries of great injury luck, and the expectation is that they will see a more normal distribution of minutes this year. 

Even with more normal injuries, this should still be an easy over bet for the Knicks. They were a completely different team after acquiring Josh Hart at the trade deadline, finishing 17-8 with him in the lineup. Getting a full season’s worth of production out of Hart will make them a better team. 

The Knicks also added DiVincenzo, who is another glue guy alongside Hart who does a little bit of everything. And their outgoing players, Derrick Rose and Obi Toppin, weren’t big contributors last year. 

Lastly, Tom Thibodeau is one of the better regular season coaches in the league. He has his players constantly overprepared, treating every regular season game as if it’s Game 7 of the NBA Finals. He should get every ounce out of this group during the doldrums of the regular season. 

Victor Wembanyama

Best NBA win total under bets

Best bet: Spurs under 30.5 wins (-120)

The Spurs under is the best bet on the board. The team won only 22 games last year. Expecting an 8.5 game improvement is a massive jump. They also lost arguably their most productive player, Jakob Poeltl, at the trade deadline. 

They did, of course, add Victor Wembanyama. But the expectation is that the Spurs will take it slow with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, limiting his minutes to help him adjust to the grueling length of NBA seasons and prevent injury on his 7-foot-4 frame.

Plus, rookies tend to be negative impact, even if they are extremely talented. Expecting him to contribute over eight wins by himself is extremely unrealistic — that would have him playing at the level of a player like Bam Adebayo in the eyes of betting models. He should surpass Adebayo one day, but doing so as a scrawny 19-year-old would be tough.

Lakers under 47.5 wins (-115)

The Lakers have gone comfortably under in all but one of their LeBron James era seasons, the lone exception being when they won the championship in the bubble. They’re obviously a good team, as evidenced by their Conference Finals run and 18-8 record after totally remaking their roster post-trade deadline. 

Health is always going to be the big issue for the Lakers in the regular season. They’re a top-heavy team that can’t sustain the loss of James or Anthony Davis for extended periods of time. Neither of those players have made it through more than 56 games over the past three seasons. With James turning 39 and Davis turning 31 this year, the chances are that they will continue to trend downward in regular season games played.

The Lakers should be a great playoff team with some championship equity, but I would be surprised if they stay healthy enough to light the world on fire during the regular season.

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