Alexa Grasso looks to show her UFC flyweight title win against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 285 wasn’t a fluke. She has everything to prove when the UFC hosts a fight night on Mexican Independence Day on September 16.
Noche UFC airs on ESPN+ in the U.S. and takes place in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Grasso won on a four-fight win streak when she faced Shevchenko, undefeated since 2018. She adapted to Shevchenko’s brutal shots, landed some of her own, and submitted the now-former champion after deflecting a spinning attack. Now facing the dangerous fighter once again, Grasso’s prepared for anything.
“There’s no pressure at all. I already accomplished the biggest dream of my life. I already made history,” Grasso said to MMA Junkie via MMA News. “I already achieved tons of things. So, no pressure for me. I could die tomorrow happy and satisfied.”
MORE: Sign up to watch Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 on ESPN+
A multi-time Muay Thai gold medalist, Shevchenko has eight wins via knockout and seven via submission. The Kyrgyzstani has beaten some of the best in the division and still believes she has a lot left in the tank. At 35, it could be a make-or-break fight for Shevchenko to remain a title contender.
The Sporting News takes a look at the betting odds between the two and predicts the outcome of the rematch:
Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 betting odds
Per Bet MGM, Valentina Shevchenko is the -160 favorite, while Alexa Grasso is the +135 underdog.
Betting trends for Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 at Noche UFC
Per Sports Interaction:
- Grasso via KO/TKO: +1000
- Grasso via submission: +300
- Grasso via decision: +305
- Shevchenko via KO/TKO: +295
- Shevchenko via submission: +600
- Shevchenko via decision: +125
- Draw: +5000
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Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 prediction, best bets
When they first fought at UFC 285, Shevchenko was the -650 favorite, while Grasso was the +425 underdog (per Bet MGM). Still the underdog, Grasso doesn’t seem to mind.
“I know what I’m capable of… I’m not in control [of] the odds,” Grasso told The New York Post. “I know that I’m the underdog like the first time, but it’s normal because she was a super dominant champion. And I’m ready for that.”
The stats make this a fascinating fight, especially following their last clash.
Grasso lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 43%. A striking machine, she landed 153 against Viviane Araujo and 59 against Shevchenko.
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Shevchenko averages 3.29 significant strikes landed per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 53%. Before the Grasso fight, Shevchenko landed 269 significant strikes in four bouts. “Bullet” has a takedown average of 2.57, landing 22 in her previous four contests and four against Grasso.
While Shevchenko has a 70% takedown game and Grasso is susceptible to them, the latter needed one counter shot to grab Shevchenko’s back and force her to submit on the floor. That was after multiple spin attack combinations. It begs the question: Has Shevchenko become predictable?
If Grasso can adapt and expose any mistake by Shevchenko, she can capitalize, like when Julianna Pena initially broke Amanda Nunes.
Shevchenko will be aggressive, but she’ll also be wary of Grasso’s offensive spurts. That could result in her not going for the finish, giving Grasso an edge to take her down again. Or she could just tire Shevchenko out. It may be a close fight or end quickly. The former seems more likely.