Uruguay host Brazil in the standout fixture of the latest round of CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying.
Against Venezuela last time out, Fernando Diniz’s side appeared to be on their way to a third win in three matches before Eduard Bello’s late overhead kick snatched a 1-1 draw from Brazil.
That result left the five-time world champions two points behind Argentina at the top of the standings, while Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay are in the middle of the pack.
La Celeste twice came from behind to claim a 2-2 draw in Colombia last time out and have a win, a draw and a defeat from their opening fixtures.
Uruguay vs. Brazil match facts
- Date: Tuesday, October 17, 2023
- Kickoff Time: 9:00 p.m. local (8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT)
- Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo, Uruguay)
- Official: Alexis Herrera (VEN)
- Last meeting: Brazil 4-1 Uruguay (Oct. 14, 2021 | 2022 World Cup qualifying)
Uruguay vs. Brazil prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Brazil win (-110)
- Score prediction: Uruguay 2-4 Brazil
One of the defining historic rivalries of world football has become very one-sided indeed over recent years.
You have to go all the way back to July 2001 for the last time Uruguay beat Brazil, with the Selecao winning nine and drawing three in the 12 games since.
Having quickly adapted to Bielsa’s signature high-intensity style, Uruguay have found themselves involved in some entertaining and high-scoring encounters. Throw in the motivation of a passionate home crowd and we could be in for a thriller where Brazil’s extra quality tells down during the final half hour.
to score Y / N
|Over / Under
|URU +0.5||BRA -0.5|
|+290||+240||-110||-110 /-135||+105 /-150||-120||-115|
Uruguay vs. Brazil best bet
- Pick: Over 3.5 goals
- Odds: +250 (BetMGM)
This is Uruguay’s first home qualifier since their opening game of the campaign, where they stormed into a 3-0 lead against Chile. Arturo Vidal netted a consolation goal, denying Bielsa’s side a clean sheet that they are still searching for.
A 2-1 defeat at Ecuador’s high altitude followed despite Agustin Canobbio giving them a halftime lead. Then there was the ding-dong encounter with Colombia, where Darwin Nunez’s stoppage-time penalty earned a share of the spoils.
It means that in two of their three qualifiers so far, the 3.5 goals mark has been exceeded. Throw in the twin factors of Bielsa’s unwavering commitment to high-octane attacking football and an expected Brazil front four of Rodrygo, Neymar, Vinicius Jr and Richarlison, and it’s tricky to see beyond an encounter rich in goals.
Uruguay vs. Brazill flier bet
- Pick: Darwin Nunez to score first and Uruguay to lose the match
- Odds: +2800 (BetMGM)
It’s been another hot-and-cold season for Liverpool striker Nunez, who has not kicked on as hoped from his dramatic match-winning brace at Newcastle United in August.
He remains a centre-forward of rare gifts and potential and, after his match-saving turn in Uruguay’s previous match, a fired-up Nunez could be key to setting the tone at a lively Estadio Centenario.
If Uruguay start fast as expected, he’ll be in the thick of the action and feels like a decent bet for first goalscorer before Brazil take control.
Uruguay vs. Brazil live stream, TV channel