USA vs Germany prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for USMNT friendly

A strong United States squad will test itself against one of Europe’s blue bloods as Germany make the trans-Atlantic trip to take on the USMNT in Hartford on Saturday.

Julian Nagelsmann will make his debut at the helm of Die Mannschaft after Hansi Flick departed in the aftermath of the 2022 World Cup group-stage exit. Germany have been mediocre since then as they searched for a permanent leader, with just two wins in their seven friendlies through 2023.

For the United States, despite Germany’s recent downturn, it will be a massive step up in competition from the September matches against Uzbekistan and Oman.

Gregg Berhalter will have Gio Reyna back from injury, meaning this international break is the first where the U.S. boss will manage the Borussia Dortmund youngster since their World Cup falling out. It’s unclear how many minutes Reyna will be available for after only just making his season debut for Dortmund days ago, but he is expected to see the field in some capacity.

MORE: A breakdown of the full USMNT squad for October friendlies vs Germany and Ghana

USA vs Germany match facts

  • Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023
  • Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT
  • Location: Rentschler Field (Hartford, CT)
  • Official: TBD
  • Last meeting: Germany 1-2 USA (Jun. 10, 2015 | International Friendly)

MORE: A full look at the Germany squad and how new manager Julian Nagelsmann will play

USA vs Germany prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+280)
  • Score prediction: USA 1-1 Germany

The Germans have been poor in multiple areas of the pitch in recent years. They scored just one goal in a three-match stretch against Poland, Colombia, and Japan across the summer, a run that came after conceding three goals each to Belgium and Ukraine. With a new permanent manager now at the helm, it’s extremely difficult to get a bead on how they will perform here.

Yet considering the extensive travel and the installment of a new head coach with specific tactical preferences, there are reasons to believe they will struggle to produce a victory against a strong U.S. side who have performed well in recent months, especially over the summer in Nations League play. While the showings against Uzbekistan and Oman were disappointing overall, there will be far less tinkering in this rare friendly where the final result will be just as important as the overall performances.

  USA
win
Draw Germany
win
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
3.5 goals
BetMGM
(USA)
+280 +280 -120 -155 / +110 -150 / +105

In Canada, bet international friendlies at Sports Interaction: See the latest odds for USA vs. Germany here

USA vs Germany: best bet

  • Pick: Under 2.5 goals
  • Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

These two teams have matched up six times since 2000, playing four friendlies and two World Cup games. Both competitive matches ended 1-0 to Germany, who also won the first of the four exhibition games, but the two most recent friendlies finished with U.S. wins by 4-3 and 2-1 scorelines.

Yet this match feels more like a competitive fixture and less like a friendly. Sure, the final half-hour will be laden with substitutions like any other friendly, but this game is less about experimentation and more about testing the best of one side against another.

Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect that both sides will look to limit the opposition’s chances, specifically the hosts. The U.S. will look to defend and press the Germans while hitting on the counter, where the visitors are vulnerable. That will create an open game in moments, but on the whole, it could get bogged down.

USA vs Germany prop bet

  • Pick: Folarin Balogun anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +240 (BetMGM)

As mentioned above, goals could be hard to come by, which makes picking a goalscorer a bit risky, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that Folarin Balogun could find the scoresheet.

Balogun has two goals in his first four U.S. caps, and he’s not yet shown his best with the national team. Berhalter has been public about how he and Balogun are working towards learning each other’s tactical preferences, and as Balogun learns the USMNT system and Berhalter adjusts to put his striker in a position to succeed, he should become a consistent threat.

Add in that Balogun will be at his best playing on the counter, something Germany have struggled mightily to defend against, and there will no doubt be chances for the Monaco striker up front. The 22-year-old is in good form at his new club, with three goals in his past four games, so he should be a good pick to make the most of his opportunities.

USA vs Germany live stream, TV channel

  • Date: Saturday, Oct. 14
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT
  • TV Channel: TNT (English); Telemundo, Universo (Spanish)
  • Streaming: Fubo, Peacock, Telemundo Deportes En Vivo, Universo NOW

The match between the United States and Germany will be available to watch on television in both English and Spanish.

TNT will have the English language broadcast, while a Spanish language option is available on both Telemundo and Universo. All three channels are available to stream on Fubo.

MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA | Watch EPL in Canada

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